Illicit markets and targeted violence in Afghanistan
Project Completed
PROJECT TEAM
Ana Paula Oliveira
Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime
Contact: Ana.oliveira@globalinitiative.net
Ana Paula Oliveira is an analyst at the GI-TOC since 2020. Her research focus is on violence associated to illicit economies, particularly in the form of targeted killings and disappearances. Her research also includes the analysis of organised crime and human rights frameworks. Ana Paula holds an LL.M cum laude in International Law by The Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies in Geneva, an LL.M in Public Law and an MBA in International Relations. She’s a qualified lawyer, having five years of practise at a law firm focusing on public law litigation.
PROJECT SUMMARY
This project examines the potential of using illicit market violence in Afghanistan as a proxy to project current and future trends of other illicit and criminal market development in the country. It does so by using a methodology developed by GI-TOC to examine targeted assassinations. By applying variables from the methodology to research and analysis on targeted violence in Afghanistan during a period of increased violent crimes against civilians (2020-2021), the project maps recent trends in the country and aims to explore whether monitoring such violence can serve as a proxy for understanding the changing dynamics of illicit economies and criminal actors at the national and regional scale.
Between 2020-2021 civilian casualties in Afghanistan increased, with women, human rights defenders, and media workers as primary targets. Findings from the research suggests:
The changing nature of assassinations and victims’ profile shifting from widespread to targeted killings and from military to civilian targets indicate varying intentions behind such violence.
Shifting methods towards IEDs and firearms indicate increased demand for such weapons and an illicit arms trade which could be a key contributor to violence in Afghanistan.
Perpetrator profiling identifies Taliban foot soldiers, raising concerns about potential commercialisation of violence.
Underlying motivations for such violence sheds light on the dynamics of illicit economies.
Changing levels of violence and a surge in criminality indicates a potential play for territorial control and the creation of violent hotspots.
While this research is not an in-depth investigation of violence across different illicit markets in Afghanistan, it raises potentially important questions about whether the variables to monitor assassinations could be used to better understand the complexities of illicit economies in Afghanistan and how to address them. It proposes a framework for further research by using a methodologically sound proxy indicator of such violence to examine the evolution of Afghanistan’s illicit markets. This approach could support the creation of a mechanism that promotes a safer environment for civil society actors, supports stabilisation and development efforts, and promotes policies that enhance community resilience, security, transparency, and accountability of government and private actors.
PUBLICATIONS
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Illicit markets and targeted violence in Afghanistan (SOC ACE Research Paper 13)
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Illicit markets and targeted violence in Afghanistan (SOC ACE Briefing Note 19)