Contrary to initial expectations, Colombia’s Total Peace Policy have not progressed as quickly or effectively as anticipated, leading to the unintended consequence of increasing armed and criminal groups capacity to govern the territories involved in negotiations, prompting some to think the policy is strengthening both rebels and criminals. This new research paper explores the argument and demonstrates that this trajectory is not generic: it depends on the armed and criminal actors, and the specific areas and the populations involved. Through comparison of negotiations’ in three regions, the paper explores not only which aspects of life are governed, but also how they are governed.

Kyle Johnson, Felipe Botero, Mariana Botero, Andrés F. Aponte, and Lina M. Asprilla.

March 2025

Drawing on the findings of two new research papers from the SOC ACE research project, “Negotiating with Criminal Groups: Colombia’s Total Peace” this briefing note explains how implementation of Colombia’s Total Peace Policy provides important lessons and implications for policymakers and scholars in organised crime, conflict resolution and negotiations, and peacebuilding; in particular: the need to understand the evolving nature of violence; the importance of coordinating between local and national authorities; appropriation of the concept of “hybrid political orders”; and the importance of timing and sequencing in negotiations.

Felipe Botero, Juanita Durán, Kyle Johnson, Mariana Botero, Andrés F. Aponte, Lina M. Asprilla.

March 2025

This new research paper explores the institutional architecture of Colombia’s Total Peace Policy, (“Paz Total”) answering two key questions: 1) what is the Policy’s institutional context, and 2) how is it being implemented by the negotiating groups. The research examines implications of the Policy’s degree of centralisation, as well as the expectations and actual involvement of local authorities and the robustness of it’s legal framework.

Juanita Durán

March 2025

Drawing on the findings of two new research papers from the SOC ACE research project, “Negotiating with Criminal Groups: Colombia’s Total Peace”, this briefing note summarises lessons for negotiating with criminal groups found through fieldwork in three regions of Colombia – Buenaventura, Arauca and Tumaco. The note focuses on two critical issues that emerge in contexts where rebel and criminal governance coexist with formal institutions.

Felipe Botero, Juanita Durán, Kyle Johnson, Mariana Botero, Andrés F. Aponte, Lina M. Asprilla.

March 2025

From the combination of traditional intelligence tradecraft with new technologies, attempts to innovate, a willingness to take greater risks, and a growing willingness to contract out activities to both licit and illicit non-state actors – especially organised crime groups, this research shows there is much that is new about the rising tide of hostile activities perpetrated by state actors and their partners; state threats.  

This paper offers firmer definitional boundaries of state threats, and within them, explores the scale, scope and characteristics of their modern manifestation, especially - but not exclusively - from a Western perspective. It shows that many hostile activities are taking advantage of the new vulnerabilities in society, such as social media and societal reliance on technology, and that state threats have become more important as tools of policy due to “geopolitical climate change”, including perceived changes in global power balances and receding agreement on international norms of behaviour.

The paper concludes that whilst evidence suggests the results of these kinds of activities are mixed, they remain an attractive form of coercive statecraft in the medium term, and that if sustained over the long term, could have more severe effects on open societies that have robust protections in place.

Matthew Redhead (RUSI)

January 2025

This briefing note offers insights on how novel approaches to measuring less visible organised crime activities such as extortion, and using the data to inform better diagnostic of the problem and develop more effective response interventions, can support the building of political will to tackle organised crime. The briefing note draws on the work done by the research team as part of Medellín Impact Lab, demonstrating how new data on extortion has led to increased political will to address the issue in the city, and Colombia more widely.

Professor Christopher Blattman, Dr Benjamin Lessing, Professor Santiago Tobón

January 2025

This briefing note provides insights on how novel approaches to measurement of less visible organised crime activities such as extortion, can be used to better diagnose problems and develop, test and iterate more effective response interventions. It offers an overview of how new data on extortion has been utilised as part of a cross-sector, collaborative Impact Lab approach to tackle the pervasive issue of organised crime groups’ extortion in Medellin.

Professor Christopher Blattman, Dr Benjamin Lessing, Professor Santiago Tobón

January 2025

This paper evaluates the evidence on the use of reward programmes for whistleblowers who report economic crimes, evaluating it against the key concerns in the debate surrounding the implementation of such schemes. It offers four observations for policymakers considering use of whistleblower rewards programmes in the fight against economic crime.

Eliza Lockhart

December 2024

This evidence review paper explores how security and justice institutions, organised crime, security sector reform and governance and counter-organised crime interventions influence and impact each other, positively and negatively.

Huma Haider

September 2024

This briefing note summarises an evidence review paper exploring how security and justice institutions, organised crime, security sector reform and governance and counter-organised crime interventions influence and impact each other, positively and negatively.

Huma Haider

July 2024

Negociar con grupos de crimen organizado en procesos de paz es ahora una realidad práctica; sin embargo, la investigación sobre este tema sigue siendo limitada. Este documento aborda esta laguna revisando diversa literatura y resaltando la necesidad de un marco que vaya más allá de la confrontación, promoviendo la acomodación y una transformación social más amplia.

Huma Haider

Julio 2024

This briefing note identifies four areas that justify greater attention to the fundamental rights of natural persons, and convergence in the human rights and crime agendas: (1) (Organised) crimes that amount to human rights violations (2) Violation of rights due to lack of remedies for crimes committed by OCGs (3) Violations of human rights committed in the context of preventing and combating OC (4) Lack of accountability for human rights violations by OCGs

Ana Paula Oliveira

April 2024

This brief brings together key lessons emerging from GI-TOC’s research on the smuggling of migrants (SOM) between 2015-23. The research emphasises: (1) The need to provide sufficient opportunities for legal migration (2) The importance of timing for enforcement-led responses (3) The adaptive nature of the smuggling industry, with route changes being implemented swiftly in response to seemingly formidable obstacles to population movement.

Tuesday Reitano and Prem Mahadevan

April 2024

This briefing note summarises GI-TOC’s research and experiences in engaging with and supporting civil society responses to organised crime. This is provided in the context of the ongoing threats and shrinking space for civil society, and a need for policymakers and officials to understand civil society’s role, value and potential.

Ian Tennant and Prem Mahadevan

Febraury 2024

This briefing note explains why awareness raising or strategic communications campaigns that aim to inform the public about controlling or fighting so-called ‘social bads’ (e.g. corruption and organised crime). Despite aiming to change behaviours, these campaigns end up having little effect and, in some cases, may even backfire, making the situation worse.

Caryn Peiffer and Nic Cheeseman

Febraury 2024

This paper is part of a comparative research phase that tests and applies the ‘IFFs pyramid’ (Reitano, 2022), in the context of the Mekong region. Based on a review of secondary literature, it provides an overview of financial flows, trade flows and informality – the three main means by which IFFs are enabled, moved and held according to the ‘IFFs pyramid’ – and discusses how IFFs manifest across the Mekong.

Kristina Amerhauser

January 2024

In this phase of the SOC ACE project “Unlocking the black box of political will on IFFs: going beyond technical responses”, the research analyses whether the ‘IFFs pyramid’ proposed by the GI-TOC (Reitano, 2022) is applicable to and useful for researchers seeking to understanding illicit financial flows in various settings around the world but especially in regions where greater levels of informality exists, such as East and southern Africa.

Michael McLaggan

January 2024

This paper is the second of a three-part series exploring the nexus between paramilitaries, illicit economies and organised crime. This research paper examines the nexus between paramilitaries, illicit economies and organised crime in frontier regions, through detailed case study analysis of these phenomena in the borderlands of Afghanistan, Myanmar and Colombia.

Prof Jonathan Goodhand, Dr Patrick Meehan, Camilo Acero & Jan Koehler

January 2024

This research paper set out to capture the implications of the Taliban’s return to power in Afghanistan in August 2021 for the local realities of the opium trade and the diverse actors whose lives are entangled in the country’s pervasive drug economy. Focusing on a narrowly defined geography and period, the paper navigates the uncertainty that was omnipresent following the announcement of the Taliban’s opium ban in the two important localities for the country’s opium economy: Helmand – the source of more than half of Afghan opium before the April 2022 ban took effect – and Nangarhar, the key opium-producing province in the eastern part of the country.

Prem Mahadevan, Maria Khoruk, Alla Mohammad Mohmandzai & Ruggero Scaturro

January 2024

This paper is the first of a three-part series exploring the nexus between paramilitaries, illicit economies and organised crime. It advances a conceptual framework for analysing the nexus between paramilitaries, illicit economies and organised crime in borderland and frontier regions.

Dr Patrick Meehan & Professor Jonathan Goodhand

January 2024