This paper is part of a comparative research phase that tests and applies the ‘IFFs pyramid’ (Reitano, 2022), in the context of the Mekong region. Based on a review of secondary literature, it provides an overview of financial flows, trade flows and informality – the three main means by which IFFs are enabled, moved and held according to the ‘IFFs pyramid’ – and discusses how IFFs manifest across the Mekong.

Kristina Amerhauser

January 2024

In this phase of the SOC ACE project “Unlocking the black box of political will on IFFs: going beyond technical responses”, the research analyses whether the ‘IFFs pyramid’ proposed by the GI-TOC (Reitano, 2022) is applicable to and useful for researchers seeking to understanding illicit financial flows in various settings around the world but especially in regions where greater levels of informality exists, such as East and southern Africa.

Michael McLaggan

January 2024

This paper is the second of a three-part series exploring the nexus between paramilitaries, illicit economies and organised crime. This research paper examines the nexus between paramilitaries, illicit economies and organised crime in frontier regions, through detailed case study analysis of these phenomena in the borderlands of Afghanistan, Myanmar and Colombia.

Prof Jonathan Goodhand, Dr Patrick Meehan, Camilo Acero & Jan Koehler

January 2024

This research paper set out to capture the implications of the Taliban’s return to power in Afghanistan in August 2021 for the local realities of the opium trade and the diverse actors whose lives are entangled in the country’s pervasive drug economy. Focusing on a narrowly defined geography and period, the paper navigates the uncertainty that was omnipresent following the announcement of the Taliban’s opium ban in the two important localities for the country’s opium economy: Helmand – the source of more than half of Afghan opium before the April 2022 ban took effect – and Nangarhar, the key opium-producing province in the eastern part of the country.

Prem Mahadevan, Maria Khoruk, Alla Mohammad Mohmandzai & Ruggero Scaturro

January 2024

This paper is the first of a three-part series exploring the nexus between paramilitaries, illicit economies and organised crime. It advances a conceptual framework for analysing the nexus between paramilitaries, illicit economies and organised crime in borderland and frontier regions.

Dr Patrick Meehan & Professor Jonathan Goodhand

January 2024

This paper examines the emerging dynamics, risks and opportunities within Afghanistan from the perspective of the gold mining industry in the north-eastern province of Takhar. While Afghanistan has relatively small value deposits compared with other resources, insights into the evolution of political economies surrounding the gold sector, its role in the economy and foreign intervention, shed light on broader dynamics of the extractives industry in the country.

Marcena Hunter & Alastair MacBeath

December 2023

This research examines the impact of Afghanistan’s drug trade on the country’s neighbours, with a particular focus on the three countries, Pakistan, Iran, and Tajikistan, which account for the highest volumes of narcotics that transit from Afghanistan. It explores policy options in the post-August 2021 context and considers the prospects of and challenges to greater regional cooperation.

Shehryar Fazli

November 2023

Kabul's fall to the Taliban in August 2021 spurred the fourth wave of distress migration from Afghanistan in 50 years. This research uncovers common patterns in Afghan migration and the impact of the Taliban's return on human mobility. It draws on interviews with migrants, smugglers, and financiers, revealing an entrenched illicit economy essential to Afghanistan and beyond. This study aims to analyse post-Kabul human mobility; and investigate the role of informal value transfer systems (IVTS) in clandestine migration.

Prem Mahadevan, Maria Khoruk, and Alla Mohamad Mohmandzaï

November 2023

In recent years, concerns over information manipulation have grown, particularly the disinformation tactics employed by authoritarian regimes. Yet, the role of non-state actors, specifically organised crime (OC) groups, in shaping information landscapes remains overlooked. Drawing from Nicholas Barnes' 'political criminality' concept, this paper investigates the complex connections between criminal actors and the state. The research spans various regions, with a strong focus on Eastern Europe, including Ukraine, Russia, Moldova (Transnistria), and Albania.

Dr Tena Prelec

October 2023

Sanctions are a crucial tool for exerting influence internationally yet understanding of the impact of sanctions evasion or avoidance (SEA) and third-country involvement is limited. This report reveals that third countries are more likely to engage in SEA when they have trade and commercial capacity, particularly in professional advisory, financial services, shipping and logistics sectors. Private commercial actors within these sectors, with an economic interest in engaging in SEA may find opportunity to do so.

Dr Liam O’Shea, Olivia Allison, Gonzalo Saiz & Alexia Anna Hack

October 2023

This paper details Russia's illicit economic activity in the occupied territories in Ukraine and calls for more international attention to this aspect of Russia's invasion. The report shows that since Russia occupied large parts of south-eastern Ukraine in March 2022, it has worked rapidly to incorporate these regions into Russia's economic and financial system. These activities were all illegal under Ukrainian law and some may constitute potential war crimes under international law.

Professor David Lewis

September 2023

This paper presents the ‘Framework of Analysis and Action’, originally designed for irregular warfare challenges, as an analytical framework to aid the assessment of and response to, organised crime. The framework builds on an instructional method long used within the College of International Security Affairs (CISA), at the U.S. National Defense University, to prepare practitioners for insurgency, terrorism, and state-based subversion. This report offers an adapted framework to help those charged with responding to organised crime with their analysis and planning.

Dr David Ucko & Dr Thomas Marks

September 2023

This paper examines the practices used to evade sanctions imposed on Russia after its invasion of Ukraine in 2022, focusing on the import–export operations of Russia, Belarus, Georgia, and Kazakhstan. The research finds that sanctions have not cut supplies to Russia but have instead empowered informal trade networks and intermediaries. Georgia and Kazakhstan have indirectly benefited from the increased transiting trade; however, the impact on the shadow economy and traditional organised crime has been minimal because sanctions-busting is not illegal in these countries.

Dr Erica Marat & Dr Alexander Kupatadze

August 2023

This paper provides an analytical overview of how Russian actors and proxies are using illicit financial flows (IFF) to support Russian foreign policy goals. It shows how Russia has used illicit finance to fund political interference campaigns, promote disinformation, and support military operations outside Russia, including the international activities of the Wagner network. It calls for a holistic approach to tackling the issue by combining effective sanctions with systematic efforts to tackle money-laundering and illicit finance in key financial and logistical hubs, including in the UK and other Western countries.

Professor David Lewis & Dr Tena Prelec

August 2023

State capture occurs when a small number of influential actors in the public and private sectors collude to change rules, regulations, legislation and institutions to further their own narrow interests at the expense of the broader public interest. In South Africa, there have been widespread allegations that several state-owned enterprises and other agencies were infiltrated by persons close to President Jacob Zuma and that they radically altered the processes and functions of these entities to serve the interests of a few individuals and companies linked to Zuma. This research examines how one institution, the South African Revenue Service (SARS), was captured and the detrimental impact of this on the capacity of SARS to detect, investigate and prevent tax and financial crimes. The literature on state capture generally does not provide detailed accounts of how specific institutions are captured or the impact on their capability and functioning; this research suggests that the further case studies may lead to improvements in our understanding of the scale of the impacts of state capture on institutions in the public sphere.

Zenobia Ismail & Robin Richards

March 2023

This briefing note summarises research that explores alternative asset recovery mechanisms that could help respond to the immediate policy goal surrounding Russian-linked sanctioned assets, and also contribute to strengthening the broader asset recovery framework in the UK for the longer term.

Maria Nizzero

March 2023

Finding responses to illicit financial flows (IFFs) and preventing the extraction, movement and secretion of wealth from the licit global economy has become a growing policy preoccupation. The scale of IFFs and their continued growth has been linked to damaging consequences for governance and the building of peaceful, inclusive societies that achieve development for their citizens. This paper draws on research and evidence from by the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime (GI-TOC) and beyond to explore how and why responses to IFFs are falling short.

Tuesday Reitano

June 2022

This research paper examines trends in Afghanistan’s opium and heroin trade and the Afghanistan-Pakistan drug smuggling nexus. It begins with a brief overview of a collapsing formal economy that lends itself to transnational organised crime, before a specific discussion about a drug trade that is deeply entrenched in the Afghan economy and its politics. It traces the Taliban’s historic stance towards narcotics and assesses the prospects of the Taliban’s 3 April 2022 edict prohibiting poppy cultivation and the use and trade of all types of narcotics across Afghanistan, which could have grave implications for a collapsing economy.

Shehryar Fazli

June 2022

This paper argues that political settlements analysis and an understanding of elite bargains need to incorporate a deeper and more systematic exploration of serious organised crime (SOC), since this affects critical elements related to the nature and quality of elite bargains and political settlements. In particular, the paper examines how SOC affects these issues – from the elites that constitute a bargain or settlement, to violence and stability, to ‘stateness’, or the extent to which a state is anchored in society, state capacity and political will, to legitimacy and electoral politics.

Alina Rocha Menocal

May 2022

This paper looks at targeted assassinations through the lens of illicit market violence in Afghanistan. It explores its potential as a key proxy to project current and future trends of other illicit and criminal market development in the country. The paper suggests a framework for further research to examine the evolution of illicit markets in Afghanistan by using a methodologically sound proxy indicator of such violence.

Ana Paula Oliveira

May 2022