A Framework for countering organised crime: strategy, planning and the lessons of Irregular Warfare
September 2023
Research Paper 19
Dr David Ucko, National Defense University
Dr Thomas Marks, National Defense University
SOC ACE Project: Organised crime as irregular warfare: a framework for assessment and strategic response
PUBLICATION SUMMARY
During the initial phase of our SOC ACE research, we identified challenges common to both counterterrorism and to combating organised crime. On the basis of these commonalities, we introduced an ‘Irregular Warfare lens’ to better assess and respond to organised crime. With counterterrorism, this lens has helped place the problem of violence within its essential political context and as a component of a struggle of legitimacy, with fundamental implications for response. A similar reorientation, we argued, is necessary for organised crime.
In this second phase, we present an analytical framework – the Framework of Analysis and Action – designed for irregular warfare challenges, to aid assessment of, as well as response to, organised crime. This framework builds on an instructional method long used within the College of International Security Affairs (CISA), at the U.S. National Defense University, to prepare practitioners for insurgency, terrorism, and state-based subversion. It has proven utility, both in the classroom and in the field. In this report, it is adapted specifically for organised crime, to guide those charged with responding to this challenge with their analysis and planning.
The Framework consists of two “parts”: the Strategic Estimate (which maps the problem, explores its drivers, frames, and strategies, and critiques the current response) and the Course of Action (which uses the Estimate to design an appropriate strategy, complete with a theory of success, phasing, assumptions, and metrics). While the framework is tailored to counter a threat actor or behaviour, it positions these within their indispensable social, political, and informational contexts. In other words, it operates at the strategic level.
To assist application, this report walks through each section of the adapted framework. Throughout, reference is made to cases of organised crime to demonstrate the insight thus gained. We welcome the implementation of this framework to both historical and contemporary problem sets and anticipate thereby its continued evolution as a practitioner’s toolkit. An abbreviated ‘user’s guide’ for the framework is included in Appendix A to facilitate its rapid employment.