The Political Will to Measure Organised Crime: Why we need it and how to build it
January 2025
Briefing note 34
Prof Christopher Blattman, University of Chicago
Dr Benjamin Lessing, University of Chicago
Prof Santiago Tobón, EAFIT Universidad
SOC ACE project: Developing government information and accountability systems for combatting serious organised crime: Medellín demonstration project
PUBLICATION SUMMARY
Policymakers tend to deal with what is measured. This is one reason why clandestine economies such as those for retail drugs or extortion can run amok, while governments focus on crimes such as homicide and armed robbery for which statistics exist. However, measuring the strength of organised crime which regulates illegal economies, is both conceptually and practically challenging – and rarely in politicians’ interest.
Eight years of mixed-method field research in Medellín, coordinated by Innovations for Poverty Action, with the support of research teams at the University of Chicago and Universidad EAFIT, and part-supported by SOC ACE, has shown how creative measurement can help create the political will to tackle serious organised crime. It has also highlighted the difficulties in doing so, and the importance of strengthening such efforts.
The research has identified three key challenges in measuring organised criminal activity. Firstly, there are nuanced barriers to reporting crimes, including the blurring of lines between service and coercion meaning citizens may not always recognise that a crime is being committed. Secondly, the reliance of criminal organisations on personal trust and informal verbal agreements in their operations means there is often an absence of formal records or assets that could be seized for evidence. And third, the (sometimes) perceived legitimacy of gang rule, garnered through the provision of governance such as maintaining public order, may mean residents are less likely to bridle at payment requests or open drug sales in their areas, and hence less likely to report.
Despite the challenges, the Medellín city-wide survey results produced by the research team have demonstrated the potential of better measurement to create political will to tackle serious organised crime. Since the data’s publication and media coverage, the Medellín Municipality has strengthened its commitment to developing and evaluating effective solutions to extortion and has informed national-level debates and policy, with the issue being adopted onto the agendas of potential presidential candidates and international representatives stationed in Colombia.
Better measurement of organised crime phenomena has the potential to strengthen diagnosis of issues and inform more effective interventions, as well as enhance the accountability of authorities. The case of Medellín illustrates the importance of data visibility in crafting public policy that effectively addresses organised crime, which is a major barrier to development not only in Latin America but also globally.