This two-phase research project starts by examining the nexus between parastatal armed groups (PAGs), illicit economies and organised crime, with a particular focus on the borderlands of Afghanistan, Myanmar and Colombia. In two research papers, this first phase has explored the relationship between coercive brokers, public authorities and frontier governance, how paramilitaries become involved in illicit economies and organised crime, the relationship between paramilitaries, organised crime and politics, and what policy combinations can address coercive brokerage in conflict-affected borderlands. The second phase has brought together policymakers to explore new approaches to addressing the challenges posed by paramilitaries. Case studies highlighting key lessons from interventions in Colombia, Myanmar and Northern Ireland will be produced along with two further research papers.

With the fall of the Ghani government in August 2021 and the return of the Taliban to power in Afghanistan, the future of the international community’s financial relationships with the governing regime in Kabul should be reassessed. An understanding of the difference between illicit finance risks and terrorist financing risks emanating from the country, as well as the nexus between them, is critical for this purpose. 

This research analyses the drivers of armed violence linked to organised crime. It is a scoping exercise of the academic and policy literature on organised crime and violence, looking closely at the evidence related to causes of violence linked specifically to organised crime. It also briefly analyses some important trends in research on environmental and societal factors influencing the likelihood of criminal violence. It provides brief case studies that illustrate different drivers at play.