SOC ACE-sponsored workshop at the 2023 Conflict Research Society Annual Conference
Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, there has been extensive, and at times overwhelming albeit wholly understandable, policy and media focus on the military aspects of the conflict. Less well understood, however, are the dynamics of illicit financial flows, corruption and serious organised crime that are also highly significant. In different ways, the pre-war political economies of both Russia and Ukraine were characterised by endemic, high-level corruption and susceptibility to organised crime. Wartime changes in these dynamics will have impacts far beyond the immediate conflict zone, including on the shifting political economy of crime in the region and the political relationships and dynamics that are necessary for sustainable peace.
This half-day workshop (by invitation) will provide a forum in which to discuss new research findings, map knowledge gaps and discuss new approaches to researching the illicit economies of conflict. It aims to improve our knowledge and understanding of these issues; to provide an opportunity for researchers – including those at early career level – to build links with policymakers and practitioners; and to identify potential opportunities for future collaboration and learning. Illicit activities are notoriously difficult to uncover using traditional research methods given their very nature as ‘hidden’, even if they may sometimes be hidden in plain sight, but recent innovations in methodologies and analysis are enabling greater understanding of these activities and their impacts than ever before. Yet there is still much more to be done; in bringing together researchers, policymakers and practitioners, this workshop will address the knowledge, intelligence and analytical challenge posed by new and fast-moving dynamics in illicit economies during war. We will present findings from current research on topics including:
the growing role of sanctions regimes and sanctions evasion as dynamics in inter- and intra-state conflicts;
the role of illicit financial and business networks in supporting Russia's occupation regime in Ukraine (such as grain-smuggling from Ukraine), and the implications for other conflicts;
the significance of paramilitary groups, with links to illicit business and organised crime, with the Wagner group as the most well-known but not the only such actor;
the impact of the conflict on organised criminal networks in Ukraine, Russia and the Black Sea region - with regional and potentially global implications; and
how best to sift through the ‘noise’ in order to identify the ‘signals’ that really matter, particularly in a politically-charged environment with demands to act quickly to provide solutions.
