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| In this month’s bulletin…Major new research paper on state threats launched! More new research on Russia’s occupation of South-Eastern Ukraine, lessons on what works form the Medellin Impact Lab, and how to build political will to tackle organised crime. Register for the latest ACE Seminar on understanding strategic corruption. Event recordings and new insights on whistleblowers and fighting organised crime. And much more!
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| | Each month, we’ll be showcasing our latest research, news & events. Click on the subscribe button to receive our newsletter. |
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| | | Launch of the new SOC ACE research paper on State Threats! |
|  | More than 160 guests attended the 14 January launch of Matthew Redhead’s work on understanding state threats. Matthew is Senior Associate Fellow at RUSI and this work was funded by the Research and Evidence Directorate in FCDO through SOC ACE.
Matthew’s exhaustive paper draws on the experience of leading state threat experts to map key areas of hostile activity, paying particular attention to their use across China, Russia, Iran and North Korea and in a variety of other contexts. The research finds much that is new, from the combination of traditional intelligence tradecraft with new technologies, to a growing willingness to contract out violent and/or dangerous covert activities to both licit and illicit non-state actors - especially organised crime.
Conclusions are that receding agreement on international norms of behaviour are encouraging more states to use such methods of coercive statecraft given their relative cheapness and apparent lack of political risk.
Find the full paper below and keep any eye out for the coming series of briefing notes that extract core findings from the full research paper at the SOC ACE ‘Understanding State Threats’ project page here! |
| More state threats research updates! The full recording of Matthew Redhead’s 14 January research paper launch at RUSI is available to watch online: Recording: Tackling the Growing Threat from Hostile States | Royal United Services Institute. The event was opened by Jonathan Allen, FCDO DG Defence & Intelligence, and SOC ACE Director Professor Heather Marquette, and was followed by a ‘fireside chat’ style panel with Matthew Redhead (RUSI), Professor Rory Cormac (Nottingham) and Suzanne Raine (RUSI Trustee). The session was chaired by Tom Keatinge, RUSI Director of the Centre for Finance and Security.
Tom and Matthew discuss the issues further in this post-launch RUSI blog -Same old same old, or something different?
The launch of Matthew’s state threats paper attracted considerable media interest: Arson, sabotage, cyber attacks': UK enters new era of threats from hostile states, iNews (paywall); RUSI and the Serious Organised Crime & Anti-Corruption Evidence (SOC ACE) Programme Launch New ‘State Threats’ Report, wired-gov.net; RUSI and SOC ACE Programme launch new ‘State Threats’ report, Security Matters.
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| More on Eliza Lockhart’s Whistleblowing research paper! |
|  | The recording of the December launch of of Eliza Lockhart’s SOC ACE research paper on, ‘The Role of Financial Rewards for Whistleblowers in the Fight Against Economic Crime’ is now online!
In a recent RUSI Commentary, Eliza sets out the ways in which her research connects with the UK government’s wider response to tackling economic crime and corruption. In particular, she flags recent announcements including, for example, a new Domestic Corruption Unit, an Anti-Corruption Champion, and a £36 million funding boost for the National Crime Agency’s (NCA) International Corruption Unit, following news of the NCA’s Operation Destabilise that smashed a billion-dollar Russian money-laundering network.
A sister podcast to this blog, featuring Eliza and the founding Director of RUSI’s Centre for Finance and Security Tom Keatinge, has just been released. Incentivising Whistleblowers to Expose Economic Crime is a 37-minute listen that explores the potential of whistleblower reward programmes to transform economic crime investigation.
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| | | | Old Wine, New Bottles? The Challenge of State Threats
Matthew Redhead (RUSI)
This research paper seeks to address the evidence gap around a rising tide of hostile activities perpetrated by state actors and their partners, many of which sit in the ‘grey’ or ‘liminal’ zone between peace and war. It examines the term ‘state threats’ and asks - why now? And what is the scope and nature of these activities?
There is much that is ‘new’ about them, and it is clear that many hostile activities take advantage of new vulnerabilities in society that have never existed before, such as the ubiquity of social media and societal reliance on technology. Overall, the research tracks the ‘geopolitical climate change’ that has made these threats real, particularly for less stable societies. If sustained long term, they could even have more severe effects on open societies that have robust protections in place. |
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|  | How to Map and Combat Urban Organised Crime: Lessons from the Medellín Impact Lab
Professor Chris Blattman (University of Chicago), Dr Benjamin Lessing (University of Chicago) & Dr Santiago Tobón (Universidad EAFIT)
With a focus on extortion and protection fees (in Medellín, close to 400 neighbourhood gangs (combos) depend on such income sources) this paper describes how impact labs may offer diagnostic and experimental capacity to tackle organised crime. Applying the four-pillar impact lab methodology and working with Medellín’s local government, police, and local non-governmental organisations, the research team have shown how the method can help diagnose organised crime issues and then develop, scale and evaluate interventions that create scope for a framework of accountability. The pillars are:
(1) investigation of the organisation and politics of organised crime;
(2) merging novel survey data together with official administrative data;
(3) understanding the long-term criminal career paths that attract new organised crime recruits;
(4) building of partnerships to develop, test, scale and evaluate treatment interventions.
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| The Political Will to Measure Organised Crime: Why we need it and how to build it
Professor Chris Blattman (University of Chicago), Dr Benjamin Lessing (University of Chicago) & Dr Santiago Tobón (Universidad EAFIT)
Creative measurement can help create the political will to tackle serious organised crime, as demonstrated by eight years of mixed-method field research in Medellín. This project has been coordinated by Innovations for Poverty Action, with the support of research teams at the University of Chicago and Universidad EAFIT and part-supported by SOC ACE.
The research identifies three key challenges in measuring organised criminal activity: the blurring of lines between service and coercion; the reliance of criminal organisations on personal trust and informal verbal agreements; and the (sometimes) perceived legitimacy of gang rule through their apparent governance actions, such as maintaining public order, which makes citizens reluctant to report them.
Even so, since the publication of the Medellín city-wide survey results produced by the research team, the Medellín Municipality has strengthened its commitment to developing and evaluating effective solutions to extortion. Data are also informing national-level debates and policy, illustrating the importance of data visibility. |
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| | | | Thursday 20 February 2025, 13:00 - 14:00 GMT - Online |
| Join SOC ACE researcher Dr Tena Prelec (University of Rijeka) with discussants Dr Bertram Lang (Philipps University Marburg) and Dr Claudia Baez Camargo (Basel Institute and GI ACE researcher) for this critical exploration of the concept of strategic corruption. Host and speakers will discuss an emerging framework for understanding the instrumental use of transnational corruption in advancing political and economic objectives.
The 40-minute discussion will be followed by a 20-minute Q&A open to the online audience. A range of case studies will be used to test the framework’s value in explaining state strategies, agency and mechanisms; its limitations in both theory and practice; and the challenges in applying it across different geopolitical contexts.
It will also reflect on the future direction of strategic corruption research, examining whether and how it can be refined and applied to current global issues such as authoritarianism, geopolitical competition, and state-sponsored illicit financial flows. |
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| | | Frontline Club’s first Kleptoscope event of the year (7pm, 11 Feb, Frontline Club) is the launch of Indulging Kleptocracy, a new book published by Oxford University Press and co-authored by John Heathershaw, Tena Prelec, and Tom Mayne, drawing on their research funded by GI ACE, among others. Congratulations to the whole team!
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| | | If you’ve used any of SOC ACE’s research to inform policy and/or practice, let us know by sending us an email at:
impact-socace@contacts.bham.ac.uk |
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