This project applies lessons from irregular warfare to countering organized crime. Irregular warfare is often defined as a violent competition over legitimacy, and it subsumes the problems of terrorism, insurgency, and political instability. Phase 1 of this research project established the commonalities between organized crime and irregular warfare: their shared nature and the pitfalls relating to response. On this basis, Phase 2 presents a Framework for Analysis and Action originally designed for irregular warfare but adapted here to the context of organized crime. The Framework consists of two “parts”: the Strategic Estimate (which maps the problem, explores its drivers, frames, and strategies, and critiques the current response) and the Course of Action (which uses the Estimate to design an appropriate strategy, complete with a theory of success, phasing, assumptions, and metrics). In a third phase of this project, the modified framework will be tested through application to key cases.

Central Asia experiences minimal direct violence associated with drug trafficking, despite serving as a significant drug trafficking route, with 90 tonnes of heroin flowing annually from Afghanistan to Russia and Europe. The region is emerging as both a transit zone and producer of synthetic drugs, sourced from China, while the demand for heroin grows in Russia and Europe. This project aims to explore the relationship between police corruption, illegal drug trafficking, and violent tactics employed by criminal organisations and/or law enforcement agencies in all four Central Asian countries. The project analyses big data on violence, drug interdictions, and patterns of corruption…

Grand corruption is a transnational problem requiring cooperation among anti-corruption actors. Law enforcement actors find that cooperation is difficult to achieve. This has been attributed to; the political sensitivity of investigations, lack of trust among agencies, difficulties in sharing intelligence securely, weaknesses and discrepancies in capacity, and organisational incentive structures that favour quick and easy cases. However, investigative journalists, increasingly cooperate across borders to investigate, and expose corruption. This research explores these two under-researched sets of anti-corruption actors, specifically the challenges to cooperation and possible solutions among law enforcement agencies; among investigative journalists; and between the two groups of actors.