Drug trafficking, violence and corruption in Central Asia
May 2022
Research Paper 07
Dr Erica Marat , National Defense University
Dr Gulzat Botoeva, University of Roehampton
SOC ACE Project: Drug trafficking, violence, and corruption in Central Asia
PUBLICATION SUMMARY
This paper examines the links between illegal drug trafficking, violence, and corruption in Central Asia. We argue that drug trafficking is highly organised with major criminal and state actors participating, and with rarely visible but periodic changes occurring among the involved parties. Our analysis of violence and policing dynamics in the region shows how patterns of organised crime depend on state effectiveness, the state protection of trafficking, and the presence of competition between traffickers. Illicit drugs flow through the region with the help of the security sectors and political elites, who share a long history of protecting and participating in drug trafficking. Criminal violence is spread across the region, especially in urban areas, but the Central Asian states are capable of intercepting and preventing illicit activities. Drug-related violence is less frequent and less visible compared with the overall level of criminal activities.
By analysing big data on violence, drug interdictions, and patterns of corruption in the region between 2015 and 2022, we explain the relationship between drug trafficking and key actors from the criminal underworld and state agencies in Central Asia. We also rely on expert interviews explaining states’ involvement in the drugs economy. Our analysis of violence and policing dynamics in the region shows how patterns of organised crime change depending on state effectiveness and the presence of competition between traffickers. Each country exhibits a unique relationship between state actors and criminal syndicates in both interdicting and facilitating drug trafficking.
Our research comes at a time of an anticipated increase in drug trafficking from Taliban-controlled Afghanistan, and of growing economic uncertainty in the wider region due to Western sanctions against Russia. In the policy realm, our research findings can help develop anti-trafficking strategies in the Central Asian region and improve our understanding of how drug trafficking can be curbed more effectively by identifying the main actors involved in this highly organised criminal process.
