Awareness has grown in recent years over the role that Chinese Professional Money Laundering Organisations (PMLOs) play in facilitating transnational crime and the threat that this poses to countries in the West. Whilst their rise can be seen to coincide with Chinese state decisions, such as its capital controls that prevent the free flow of money out of the country, there is little research on the potential links between Chinese PMLOs and the Chinese state, including on the question as to whether Chinese PMLO activity should be considered alongside other state threats. This research will, a) look into the evolution of the Chinese PMLO threat, comparing well-established operations in the US and Canada with more nascent operations seen in Europe, and b) explore their role in the context of Chinese state activity.

This research analyses the impact of whistleblower reward programmes and scrutinises whether the concerns that have been raised regarding their implementation have eventuated in practice. Furthermore, it considers what factors have been shown to be necessary for such a scheme to operate as part of a wider strategy to increase the effectiveness of economic crime investigations and concludes with observations for policymakers considering the introduction of whistleblower rewards.

The project evaluates the role of Global Trade Hubs (GTH) along the maritime Silk Road in facilitating illicit activities, particularly smuggling, leveraging proven methods based on mirror trade statistics. By comparing these findings with existing assessments of illicit activities and flows, the project aims to provide insights into the potential risks associated with GTH involvement in illicit financial flows (IFFs).

This project examines how Russia is using illicit financial flows (IFF) to support its military campaign against Ukraine and to further its wider foreign policy goals. The scale of Russian use of illicit financial networks has increased rapidly since February 2022. Unless effectively countered, Russia's use of financial and economic tools will give it an advantage in its war against Ukraine and may begin to pose a potential systemic threat to international financial and trading systems. The research seeks to conceptualise how Russia uses illicit finance in political interference and information campaigns around the world, and how these dynamics may be changing in the new context of the war in Ukraine.

The war in Ukraine and sanctions on Russia are leading to tectonic changes in Eurasia’s illicit scene. The war has disrupted licit and illicit supply chains throughout the region, changed routes of trafficking and shifted production of illicit commodities. This project aims to understand changing dynamics in respect of the following: a)  threats in borderlands and seaports; b) opportunities in neighbouring countries as legal companies and criminal enterprises step in to fill the void of meeting the demand on sanctioned goods in Russia; c) actors in smuggling and trafficking; and d) elite bargains related with illicit flows.

The harms on economies and societies are significant when proceeds of crime and corruption are moved unimpeded through the global financial and trade systems. As policymakers are looking to identify ways to respond better to illicit financial flows (IFFs), this research project seeks to better understand what enables IFFs, if there is political will to address IFFs and what interventions have been successful in addressing IFFs as part of a politically sensitive approach. The overarching conclusion of the initial research was that the line between business, politics and crime has never been more blurred. The research proposes a framework, the so-called ‘IFFs pyramid’, to explain the three dominant means by which IFFs are enabled, moved and held: financial flows, trade flows and informal flows. In its second phase, the research project is testing the use and applicability of this framework in East and Southern Africa and the Mekong region. 

This research paper examines the nexus between para-statal armed groups (PAGs), illicit economies and organized crime, with a particular focus on the borderlands of Afghanistan, Myanmar and Colombia. It draws upon new data and analysis generated by a four-year GCRF project, Drugs & (Dis)order. This involved longitudinal, mixed methods research in nine drugs- and conflict-affected borderlands, where PAGs have become embedded within the political, military and economic landscape. The paper sets out a new conceptual framework for analysing the organised crime-militia nexus in conflict-affected borderlands.

This project examines why third countries – countries neither sending sanctions or the target of them – either facilitate sanctions evasion and avoidance (SEA) or support efforts to counter it. It focuses on sanctions relating to Russia since February 2022 and it based on rapid review of the thematic literature on SEA and empirical research in 13 third countries. Our analysis examines how flows of Russian financial and human capital and patterns of SEA changed since February 2022; what factors affect either facilitation of or support to counter SEA; what are the types of individuals/organisations that facilitate SEA, and what methodologies and typologies do they use.

This project seeks to contribute to the ‘freeze to seize’ debate: how to move from temporary sanctions-based asset freezes of Russian-linked assets towards more permanent asset deprivation via criminal justice confiscation mechanisms. It does so by examining a range of established asset confiscation concepts and their operationalisation in specific jurisdictions, which have their basis not in sanctions designations but in evidentially-driven and judicially-overseen criminal justice processes. The research sets out the current limitations of UK civil recovery mechanisms and looks at examples of three alternative mechanisms (lowering the standard of proof, reversing the burden of proof and ‘societal danger’ models) across …

Grand corruption is a transnational problem requiring cooperation among anti-corruption actors. Law enforcement actors find that cooperation is difficult to achieve. This has been attributed to; the political sensitivity of investigations, lack of trust among agencies, difficulties in sharing intelligence securely, weaknesses and discrepancies in capacity, and organisational incentive structures that favour quick and easy cases. However, investigative journalists, increasingly cooperate across borders to investigate, and expose corruption. This research explores these two under-researched sets of anti-corruption actors, specifically the challenges to cooperation and possible solutions among law enforcement agencies; among investigative journalists; and between the two groups of actors.

With the fall of the Ghani government in August 2021 and the return of the Taliban to power in Afghanistan, the future of the international community’s financial relationships with the governing regime in Kabul should be reassessed. An understanding of the difference between illicit finance risks and terrorist financing risks emanating from the country, as well as the nexus between them, is critical for this purpose. 

The Financial Action Task Force (FATF) focuses on combatting money laundering. In February 2012, it codified its recommendations setting the global standard on combating money laundering and terrorist financing. Countries voluntarily accept FATF recommendations and must produce their anti-money laundering (AML) framework for assessment by FATF once they’ve accepted. This project examines eight African and Middle Eastern countries that voluntarily implemented these recommendations from 2012 to 2020. It tests the hypothesis: Does implementing FATF recommendations reduce trade gaps? Using a ‘difference in difference’ methodology the project tests whether suspected illicit financial flows (IFF), measured through the trade-gap methods, decline after the decision to implement FATF recommendations.