This research uses decades of lessons and experience gained in irregular warfare (IW) – and in counterinsurgency in particular – to assist assessment and response to organised crime. Whereas recent experience with counterinsurgency in Iraq and Afghanistan presents mostly cautionary tales, tremendous insight can be gained from the scholarship and precedents that emanate from the broader field. Applying IW theory and experience to the problem of organised crime emphasises its indispensable context: how societies work, how governance and economic practice become corrupted, and how states can react, both to suppress the problem of crime but also to address its root causes. In this first phase of the research, lessons for strategy, policy and practice are identified, and plans for follow-on research where a framework for assessment and action previously elaborated for irregular challenges will be adapted for the specific problem of organised crime to assist in analysis and response.

David Ucko & Thomas Marks

May 2022

Organised criminal activities, by their nature, are hard to measure. Administrative data are often missing, problematic, or misleading. Moreover, organised criminal activities are under-reported, and under-reporting rates may be greatest where gangs are strongest. Here we draw on our experience in Colombia, Brazil, and Liberia of collecting systematic data on illicit activities and armed groups, in order to share our learning with other researchers or organisations that fund research in this area, who may find this useful for their own research. We address: first steps before asking questions, common challenges and solutions, and alternative sources.

Christopher Blattman, Benjamin Lessing, Juan Pablo Mesa-Mejía & Santiago Tobón

May 2022