Mapping Russian illicit finance in Africa: the cases of Sudan and Madagascar
May 2022
Briefing Note 07
Dr Catherine Owen, University of Exeter
SOC ACE Project: Illicit finance and Russian foreign policy: new dynamics and linkages
PUBLICATION SUMMARY
This briefing note shows how Russian foreign policy in Africa facilitates illicit financial flows (IFF) into and out of the continent through two case studies. First, in Sudan, gold-mining ventures, supported by military investments, are being exploited by Russian and Sudanese political elites hit by Western economic sanctions. Second, in Madagascar, Russian ‘political technologists’ influenced electoral processes by cultivating anti-Western sentiments and supporting Moscow-friendly candidates. Together, these case studies exemplify the range of tools – in the political, media, and military realms – employed by Kremlin-connected actors to advance Russia’s international economic interests by informal means.
Russia’s stated political ambitions in Africa seek to build what it considers ‘an independent centre of power in a multipolar world’. A further ambition is to create economic environments amenable to illicit Russian trade and finance. Illicit financial flows between Russia and countries across Africa are extremely difficult to trace – and have become even more difficult with the closure of the independent Russian media following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022.
The African continent is important for understanding how Kremlin-connected actors prepare the ground for illicit financial flows to and from Russia. The widespread lack of financial regulatory and oversight mechanisms in most countries across sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) mean that the tactics deployed by Russian agents to influence politico-economic outcomes are arguably both the most flagrant and the most devastating. In the wake of sweeping sanctions that effectively decouple Russia from the global economy, it is highly likely that illicit financial flows between Russia and countries across Africa will increase. Hence, it is essential to understand these tactics and their impacts.
The briefing note maps the wider conditions in which illicit Russian finance may flourish. It reveals how anti-Western sentiment across the African continent is cultivated and exploited through diplomatic channels, as well as through processes of disinformation and political manipulation,to create an environment in which lucrative contracts to extract natural resources are awarded to Russian elites. The briefing begins with a summary of Russia’s formal and informal engagements in Africa, before illustrating these wider tendencies in the case studies of Sudan and Madagascar.
It concludes by highlighting the cooperation opportunities available to countries hit by Western sanctions, and argues that policy-makers must be prepared for a possible strengthening of illicit financial flows between so-called ‘pariah states’.
